3 Answers

    1. Trouble happens, and very often.

    2. Most people are subject to ” deviation in the direction of a positive outcome.” This is a tendency to overestimate the probability of success, in other words, unreasonable optimism.

    3. Often there are troubles + people overestimate the probability of success = people suffer because the” cruel ” world for some reason does not meet their optimistic expectations.

    4. People are prone to anthropomorphism, and therefore see what happened as “malicious intent “(=meanness), instead of admitting their mistake in the assessment, adjust their overly optimistic expectations and prepare a plan of action for the moment when the trouble happens.

  1. If n tests are performed, the result of each of which is evaluated by a logical function z, and the result “false” is undesirable, then for a sufficiently large n, we will necessarily get an undesirable result for at least one test A

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