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By 50%. It is either possible or impossible. The main problem with conspiracy theories is the complete lack of opportunities to test the latter. Absolutely any historical fact can be interpreted as supporting or refuting a conspiracy theory, so it is literally impossible to prove or refute a conspiracy theory. This is why conspiracy theories are considered purely unscientific.
In a sense, conspiracy theories are a distorted form of religion: a belief in certain forces that rule this world and whose existence cannot be verified.