This technique requires the analyst to start with a complete set of plausible hypotheses, rather than just one preferred one. The analyst then takes one of the assumptions and discusses whether it is consistent or inconsistent with each hypothesis. The idea is to refute hypotheses, not confirm them. The most preferred hypothesis is the one against which there are the least assumptions, and not the one for which there are the most. This process applies basic elements of scientific methods to intelligence analysis. knowledgr.com
Analysis of competing hypotheses.
This technique requires the analyst to start with a complete set of plausible hypotheses, rather than just one preferred one. The analyst then takes one of the assumptions and discusses whether it is consistent or inconsistent with each hypothesis. The idea is to refute hypotheses, not confirm them. The most preferred hypothesis is the one against which there are the least assumptions, and not the one for which there are the most. This process applies basic elements of scientific methods to intelligence analysis. knowledgr.com