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Now the Fujitsu supercomputer is said to have modeled the workings of the human brain on a scale of 1: 240,000 ( quibbll.com ). In 20 years, it will probably be possible to overclock computers a million times. But in terms of timing, these are all perfect speculations, since long-term trends in the development of either computing technology or humanity are not clear.
Gref, for example, recently promised in his slide a technological singularity by 2045, which implies, among other things, the creation of artificial intelligence. This, of course, is an overly simplistic view of things, typical for a neophyte in technology, but it shows that the confusion in thinking about this has already reached top management, and therefore, more and more people will invest in this business, because whoever gets superhuman intelligence first in one way or another will be ahead of everyone forever.
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If you look back, what happened in 30 years cellular communication appeared:) It's not hard to imagine what will happen in another 30 years! For sure, artificial intelligence will enter our lives much faster and earlier: (
I doubt that all implementations of neural networks and the entire machine learning is only in its infancy in fact and where they operate with strictly defined criteria for training, that is, at the moment there is no program/artificial intelligence that would be able to determine what to learn and how to answer the question posed to it.
Here the question is rather how soon someone will understand how such intelligence should work.
And probably the most important question that can lead to its creation is why this intelligence is needed? Since humanity has never created anything normal without a goal. Perhaps answering this question will turn out that to some extent it already exists in the form of search engines or the same IBM Watson, SETI, etc.