6 Answers

  1. Apophis for the Earth is like a pellet for an elephant: a collision will give an explosion of only about 800 Mt. The destructiveness of an explosion increases in proportion to the cubic root of its TNT equivalent. That is, the explosion generated by the collision of the Earth with Apophis will have a radius of destruction 2.4 times greater than from the “Tsar Bomba”, 1.6 times greater than from the explosion of the Krakatoa volcano. Seriously, but on a planetary scale, this is purely local damage. If all the energy of the explosion goes into the earth's crust, it will give an earthquake of magnitude about 8. These occur every year.

    That is, if you fall in a densely populated region, the damage will be huge (for this area). When falling in a desert area, it may turn out to be zero at all.

  2. No, it's not scary, because the asteroid Apophis does not pose a danger to the Earth and has a value of 0 on the Turin scale (link to the NASA website). The Turin scale evaluates the asteroid hazard based on two characteristics: the probability of impact and the kinetic energy of the impact (how strong it will be).

    Characteristics of the value 0 on the Turin scale:

    “The probability of a collision is zero, or so low that it can be considered zero. This also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere, and to rare meteorites that reach the surface but rarely cause damage.”


    1. Probability of collision.

    Initially, when it was discovered in 2004, the asteroid was really assigned the value 4, but after a month and a half, on February 5, 2005, a recalculation and risk analysis were made, which showed that:�

    a) an asteroid impact with Earth in 2029 is still ruled out;

    b) not a single asteroid flyby during the entire 21st century is a cause for concern.

    In 2006, it was officially converted to 0. Now, judging by the materials on the NASA website, the probability of a collision for individual flights is so small that it is even difficult to calculate it. Here they write that for the entire time interval, the cumulative probability is of the order of 8.9*10^-6 (i.e., the chance that an asteroid will never occur at all will not collide with the Ground, equal to 99.99911%).

    2. The force of collisions.

    The force of the collision is determined by the kinetic energy of the asteroid upon impact. You wrote the following in the question:

    asteroid Apophis will fall to earth and destroy the entire civilization

    Fortunately, this is not the case, the calculated kinetic energy in an asteroid collision will be about 1200 megatons. A lot (about 20-25 times more than the tsar bomba), but not enough to cause a global catastrophe. According to the same Turin scale, a global catastrophe can be expected in a collision with a body whose kinetic energy exceeds 10^5 megatons, which is almost 100 times greater than that of apophis. Apophis itself, with a collision probability of 100%, can reach a maximum of level 9:

    An imminent collision that could cause unprecedented devastation to an entire region if an object hits land, or the threat of a massive tsunami if it hits the ocean. Such events occur on average once every 10,000-100,000 years.

    Not a word about the global catastrophe


    Apophis is a widely circulated media duck based on preliminary and unconfirmed data. Hazard level 4 was given conditionally, before the exact recalculation of the trajectory, and after a month and a half, information was given that it does not pose any danger at all and the probability of a collision is almost zero or zero. At the same time, unscrupulous media outlets have been replicating unverified information for almost 15 years.�

    Yes, the asteroid is heavy and will cause a lot of problems in a collision, but the collision will not happen. Moreover, there is a current list of potentially hazardous objects, which are replenished daily, and if you sort the list by star absolute magnitude of the object (which is one of the main indicators by which fasciculata size, mass, and hence the destructive collision), then 99942 Apophis there is something that is not in the top ten (and not even in the top hundred, and not for the first thousand), and in 1578 place, according to 11.08.2019. One and a half thousand much more dangerous objects, and the media has been rubbishing Apophis for 15 years!�

    P.S. Do you know how many of these potentially dangerous objects have a value above zero on the Turin scale? That's right, none.

  3. Even if it falls, it won't destroy the entire civilization. The diameter of Apophis is 320 meters, which is quite a lot, it smells beautiful. But for comparison, the Chikshulub meteorite, which fell on the dinosaurs, had a diameter of 10-15 km. And although he spoiled the life of the earth's inhabitants thoroughly, they did not stop living. And there is nothing to say about Apophis, compared to Chikshulub, this is zilch.

  4. No, it doesn't scare me at all, but even pleases me! Finally, these people will not be there, they have polluted the entire planet with garbage, and they are doing global warming.

  5. No. Living in fear is an unacceptable waste of vital energy, which is more pleasant to spend on other things, such as communicating with the opposite sex, looking at the heavenly bodies through a telescope, a cup of coffee with a shabby book, kung fu and many other things that your mind can reach. A meteor will fly past, and the disaster will be canceled.

  6. It seems that scientists explained authoritatively and expertly that the probability is not very high, in fact, it is minimized. Of course, the popular version of journalists is more interesting. You can at least open a Wikipedia article about the asteroid Apophysis, it basically says everything.�

    NASA Statement

    NASA has almost completely ruled out the possibility of Apophis colliding with Earth in 2036 . This conclusion was made based on data collected by several observatories during the Apophis flyby at a distance of 14.46 million kilometers from Earth on January 9, 2013.

    The odds that a collision will occur are now less than one in �million, which allows us to say quite confidently that we ” practically rule out a collision (Apophis) with Earth in 2036.

    – Don Yeomans (Head of the Laboratory's Near-Earth Object Research Unit)According to initial estimates (before the asteroid passed by our planet), the probability of a collision of Apophis with Earth in 2029 was 2.7 %.

    Also, scientists previously believed that after a close approach to Earth “in 2029, the orbit of Apophis may change, which will lead to an increased” risk of collision with our planet in 2036 during the next ” approach. Now this possibility is almost completely eliminated

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